Just as we talked about last night we will want to monitor developments on this tropical wave out over Hispaniola just to be safe. It’s too early to say what this will be, but for now we aren’t overly concerned about serious organization. Heavy rainfall is always a possibility, however, one we’ll track closely this week.
The National hurricane Center says that they are giving this thing a 20% chance of development. Ok, so that might sound a bit unnerving, right now this is not something that we are just too overly concerned about.
Let’s talk weather reality here for a moment. Yes, it is totally possible that this disturbance develops into a weak tropical storm. However, there seems to be very little evidence that will support that according to the global models, and there is ZERO indication of anything stronger than that.
This one is pretty run-of-the-mill when it comes to June and July systems that originate out in that area of the tropics. The one the big worry that we will have here is heavy rainfall. If that does happen, we will probably see that sometime Thursday or Friday.
So, water temps are in the 80s and that is good for development. But overall, the conditions are not ideal and tropical systems need plenty of help to get going. right now this thing just isn’t getting all that much help.
I expect that we see it develop into something small and manageable, but let’s not get worked up over it right now. But here is what you do need to do—BE PREPARED!
Right now we are in the Tropical Wave stage of this thing and we need to remember that this is the lowest of concern in the tropical terminology. It bears watching but we don’t panic. You will hear a lot of social media chatter about all these concerns but remember, this is not anything like that. In fact, we created a little cheat sheet for folks to help remember some of the terminology that you might see over the coming weeks.
Keep it handy as a reference and stay tuned to local television media and they will keep you up to date on what to expect and I will do my very best supplement that as best as I can.
You folks stay safe and STAY GULF AWARE!