Texans along the Gulf Coast are keeping a close eye on a tropical wave that is currently impacting Cuba and the Florida Keys. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves toward Texas. The wave should move northwest into the southeastern Gulf by Tuesday and into the northwestern Gulf by Thursday. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this wave Tuesday afternoon if necessary.
Right now, regardless of development, models suggest that it will be a rainmaker for us Thursday night through Saturday. How much rain falls will depend on how organized it gets and where it eventually moves inland along the Texas coast. If it develops into a tropical storm, the name “Gonzalo.”
An upper-level ridge is stationary over the southeast United States and that will help stir the wave west across the Gulf, eventually affecting the western Gulf Coast later this week into the weekend. As of Tuesday morning, anywhere from the Mexico border to the upper Texas coastline appear to be within the forecast cone.
It remains very probable that we’ll see moderate to heavy tropical showers and thunderstorms between Friday and Saturday. While there is an outside chance that this organizes into a Tropical Cyclone, most of what we are seeing today suggests that it won’t.
Gulf water temperatures remain are pretty warm at 83-86 and the wind shear is on the lower side so development cannot be completely ruled out.
About midway out into the central Atlantic, there is a tropical wave that is located just east of the Windward Islands. As of Tuesday morning, that system has become a little better organized overnight. Conditions are expected to become somewhat favorable for development of this system over the course of the next few days. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a medium chance of development over the next 5 days (60%).