Afternoon Tropical Update: Saturday
There has been a MAJOR shift in the forecast track for Tropical Storm Marco this afternoon since the last update. Marco’s track shifted further to the east than we initially expected and it is now taking aim on the Mid-Gulf coast of the United States.
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Storm Surge watch is now in effect from Sabine Lake here in Texas to the Alabama/Florida border. At this time, Corpus Christi and the Coastal Bend is not in the forecast cone for Marco, or even really anywhere close.
Marco is currently positioned at 21.9N 85.7W or 821 miles from Port Aransas. Maximum Sustained winds remained consistent at 65 mph. It is now moving towards the north/northwest at 13 mph.
Official NHC Forecast
Although there has been a big change in the forecast track for Marco this afternoon, don’t let your guard down. Tropical Storm Marco was currently located in the Yucatan Channel, and forecast to move north-northwest, reaching the central gulf coast on Monday. Marco could make landfall anywhere from the Texas/Louisiana border to the Mississippi/Alabama border. After landfall, Marco is expected to slow down and turn toward the west-northwest reaching east Texas on Tuesday into Wednesday. Marco is forecast to become a category 1 hurricane before landfall. There is still an unusually high level of uncertainty regarding the forecast track of this storm. All interests in the northwest and central Gulf coast should continue to closely monitor the progress of this storm.
Direct impacts from Marco are becoming less and less likely. Tropical storm force winds are becoming less likely over the Coastal Waters along the mid Texas Coast. In fact our current probability is zero. However, if the track shifts back to the west, the potential could increase once again. This has been an incredibly tricky storm to predict and it will likely remain that way until just before landfall. But new data is giving us more confidence in where this thing is going to be going.
We will have a full rundown this evening on why this happened and if you remember, earlier in the week we talked about the path of least resistance and that this was a possibility. That is what has happened so we are not totally shocked by this shift and it was somewhat expected….although we didn’t expect quiet this drastic of a shift.