Marco has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, as of the last update from the National hurricane Center at 10:00 pm this evening. We are continuing to watch it, but it does look like Tropical Storm Marco will make landfall over the Louisiana coast sometime on Monday. Now, let’s dig into the details of this thing.
Forecasters use various computer models to forecast tracks and intensity of weather. Data is fed into those computer models and then they work various solutions. The trick for the forecasters is to marry the data from the models to the practical science. That is always the hard part. But, Matt and I have been following the model known as the UKMET model. For this Laura, it has been the most accurate—this time around. As of now, the UKMET model run has Laura moving inland somewhere around Cameron, Louisiana as a hurricane.
The 10:00 PM Sunday forecast track from the National Hurricane Center made very few changes from the previous versions during the day on Sunday. They do have Laura going into Louisiana as a hurricane.
Looking at the official data on Laura, it is currently located20.1N 76.6W or 1396 miles from Port Aransas. The latest maximum sustained winds are holding at 65 mph. It is moving to the West/Northwest at 21, which is a pretty good clip. The center of circulation for Laura is taking the southern route along the Cuban coast just as we have been talking about. As Laura emerges out over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, expect to see some intensification.
Now, taking a look at Marco. Marco has been downgraded to a tropical storm as of the 10:00 pm update, and it is located at 26.8N 87.6W or 585 miles from Port Aransas. Maximum Sustained Winds are at 70 mph. It’s current movement is NNW at 12 mph. Both storms right now have a Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb.
Now, let’s talk about what the National Weather Service says will be the impacts here locally, as of tonight. Tropical Storm force winds are possible beginning Wednesday and continuing through Thursday. Remember, those are winds in excess of 39 mph. They are also saying that 1-2 inches of rain could fall near the coast with lower amounts inland, mostly Wednesday through Thursday. Any shift in the track will affect the amounts and locations of the heaviest rainfall.
Coastal flooding is forecast to begin late Tuesday and continue through Thursday. A high rip current risk is expected through much of the week. Wave heights over the coastal waters could reach 8 – 12 feet Wednesday through Thursday, then subside on Friday. Wave heights and timing could change with intensity or track changes.
Stay aware this week and let’s keep an eye on these storms come what may. We will give you an update in the morning and overnight if anything significant changes.
This report was filed by Doug Mason and Matt Pierce Briscoe. All information is gathered from sources including the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, Various computer models and scientific analysis. When making decisions, we encourage to always refer to the NHC and the local National Weather Service office here in Corpus Christi.