James Hernandez isn’t an unknown by any stretch of the imagination and if the data holds true through Election Day it is possible that Democrat Abel Herrero could be in serious trouble after seemingly taking Hernandez lightly.
Data shows two things that might have caused the dynamic to swing into favor of Hernandez—Hilltop and Robstown early voting.
Hilltop swings conservative and the turnout there has been pretty impressive during early voting. Unless some of the Calallen republicans are being swingers and voting for Herrero, that could mean that Republican James Hernandez could give him a run for his money. But that isn’t a given because those Republicans have been known to vote for a Democrat in the past—despite being rightward leaning. But the problem for the incumbent is that his backyard of Robstown didn’t turnout like Herrero needed them to do during early voting.
Hernandez could have a shot but Republican voters are concerned that if he is elected it could be Gene Seaman 2.0, seeing how most of his funding has come from Seaman. But that also might not be a bad thing to the older guard who remain fiercely loyal to anything that the former lawmaker has to lend his support towards. Question remains, is it enough?
Herrero could have made a fatal mistake in thinking that Hernandez was going to be a novelty candidate and with having experience under the granite dome this coming session nearly vital for a district Herrero could have inadvertently left his district out to dry in the farmland heavy sun—and they are feeling it.
Hernandez can’t take this a too much momentum because Hererro was able to crack more Democrat support in the primaries but those numbers are often unreflective in the general. Hernandez, who has been working the blue collar crowd for the past 8 months might have been able to swing some of those votes away from Herrero and that could be a bigger issue if you are Herrero. It is those blue collar Democrats that Herrero has been solid with in the past but now they have somebody to side with that makes sense and that they see every single day working right beside them.
Problem is that Hernandez if Hernandez does somehow squeeze out a win on Tuesday, he doesn’t seem to know the dynamics of how the brown carpet room works—that is where Gene Seaman would have to come into play.
You can forget key Committee assignments or even getting a relevant bill heard unless there are some heavyweight sponsors on board with him. If Houston and Dallas flip like they very well could, having strong and experienced district representation will prove to be a real value.
But Hernandez could swing it, if he can swing it.
You can’t by any stretch cal this election off just yet, or even pick Hernandez as a gift horse for the local GOP. But, he could actually now be a real contender and that he would owe to a big Trump turnout and lack of presence by the incumbent. Herrero would be wise to wake Robstown up and wake them up pretty quick—if he is awake over there.